May 2025 SCUBA Provider Update: Growth Holds Steady, But Big Moves Still on Hold

Welcome back to SCUBA — Scott’s Completely Unscientific Behaviorist Assessment — where I track directional trends in ABA provider hiring, growth, and strategy using publicly available data.

⚠️ Important Note on Methodology:
This data isn’t perfect. LinkedIn misses many direct care staff, and state counts come from provider websites, which aren't always current. But taken together, these signals help us understand momentum, not precision — and that’s often what matters most. I always welcome feedback or corrections.

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🧠 What’s New This Month?

📈 May Workforce Snapshot
✔️ Top 20 ABA providers grew LinkedIn-reported staff counts by 1.46%
✔️ Job postings increased 3.45% — signaling selective summer hiring momentum

🗺️ Geographic Expansion? Rare.
Only very limited state growth was detected (e.g., Stepping Stones). Most top providers are doubling down on density over footprint.

📉 Still No Major Shakeups.
Top 20 rankings are unchanged for another month — a clear sign of consolidation at the top and hesitation to scale without more clarity on reimbursement.

💰 Medicaid Uncertainty Lingers.
Ongoing audits and funding pressures may be tempering expansion plans. Expect more focus on productivity, not just headcount.

🌞 Seasonal Strategy Is In Play.
With summer coming, school-based ABA demand is shifting. Providers may optimize schedules or rebalance caseloads.

🔁 M&A Watch: Activity Picks Up — But Quiet at the Top.
Yes, dealmaking is finally stirring — e.g., Alongside ABA, now a top-100-sized provider, added another region.
But so far, no meaningful consolidation among the largest players.

📬 Want to understand how your org stacks up? I provide custom workforce dashboards, M&A insights, and competitive strategy briefs for providers, investors, and tech vendors. Reach out.