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Provider SCUBA

Provider SCUBA March 2026 Snapshot

Provider SCUBA March 2026 Snapshot

⚠️ Methodology Reminder

SCUBA = Scott’s Completely Unscientific Behaviorist Assessment — a deliberately imperfect, directional look at staffing momentum across ABA providers.

This is not a census. LinkedIn undercounts direct-care staff, headcount lags payroll, and public job postings reflect intent more than execution. But across 130+ organizations tracked consistently over time, these signals continue to surface meaningful structural patterns in the ABA market.

🤿 March Snapshot — Growth Continues, But Has Slowed

March did not show a slowdown in headcount.

It showed a slowdown in momentum.

Across the Top 20:

  • Most providers added staff month-over-month
  • Gains were incremental, not step-change
  • Job postings remain below mid-2025 peaks

Quarterly context (Jan → Mar):

  • Top 20 average growth: 3.2%

This is lower than prior periods where growth was more aggressive.

What matters:
Growth continues—but has shifted to steady, controlled expansion.

🔀 Market Signal: Fraud, Waste & Abuse Focus

ABA has entered a more visible phase, driven by OIG audits and recent reporting.

  • Oversight of billing, documentation, and utilization is expanding
  • Rapid Medicaid growth is drawing policy attention
  • Variation in care models and therapy intensity is becoming more exposed

In response, some states are taking a “hammer vs. nail” approach:

  • broad rate resets
  • service caps
  • tighter utilization controls

What matters:
The system is being simplified in response to variability—
even where care delivery is not.

📊 MVP Cohort — Fastest % Growth (Q1 2026)

This month introduces a new lens:

MVP Cohort = the five providers with the highest percentage headcount growth (Jan 2026 → Mar 2026)

This cohort will reset each quarter, then be tracked month-to-month to compare how recent high-growth providers perform against the Top 20 and each other.

It answers a different question than scale:
not who is largest—but where momentum is building.

MVP Cohort — Q1 2026:

  • Achievements ABA
  • Brighter Strides
  • SOAR
  • Behavioral Framework
  • Golden Steps ABA

Cohort performance:

  • Average growth: 11.0% for the quarter
  • More than 3x the Top 20 growth rate (3.2%)

Where they sit:

  • Largely within the next tier below the Top 20 (often in the Top 50 by LinkedIn staff count)
  • In active expansion phases rather than optimization

What matters:

  • Growth leadership is not concentrated at the top
  • The fastest-moving providers are building regional density below the top tier
  • Tracking this group over the next quarter will show which sustain momentum—and which converge back toward the market

Provider SCUBA Takeaways — March 2026

  • Quarterly growth slowed to 3.2% at the top tier
  • Fraud, waste, and abuse scrutiny is becoming central
  • Some states are responding with broad cost controls
  • The fastest-growing providers are concentrated in the mid-tier, not the top

If you’re navigating these shifts — whether as a provider, platform, or investor — let’s connect. 

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