Provider SCUBA April 2026 Snapshot
⚠️ Methodology Reminder
SCUBA = Scott’s Completely Unscientific Behaviorist Assessment — a deliberately imperfect, directional look at staffing momentum across ABA providers.
This is not a census. LinkedIn undercounts direct-care staff, headcount lags payroll, and public job postings reflect intent more than execution. But across 130+ organizations tracked consistently over time, these signals continue to surface meaningful structural patterns in the ABA market.
🤿 April Snapshot — Continued Payor Pressure
March introduced a slowdown in momentum.
April confirmed it.
Across the Top 20:
- Most providers again added staff
- Growth remained incremental
- No reacceleration
What changed from March:
No structural shift.
What matters:
The slowdown is now the operating baseline.
🧱 Top Tier — Stable
No change from March:
- The top tier continues steady, linear expansion
- The mid group remains tightly clustered behind it
- No provider is breaking into a new scale position
What matters:
Growth is happening—but it is not reshaping the market.
⚙️ Growth Pattern — Still Consistent
March showed isolated large staffing jumps.
April did not extend that pattern.
- No new large jumps in April
- Most providers—especially in the mid group—remain on steady paths
What matters:
The dominant model is still consistent, repeatable growth—not sudden expansion.
📉 Hiring Signal — The Only Real Change
This is where April diverged from March.
Across the Top 20:
- A majority increased job postings
- A meaningful minority reduced or held flat
What changed from March:
- Hiring activity picked up at the top tier
- More mixed behavior across the mid group
Two patterns are now visible:
- Top-tier providers reopening hiring pipelines
- Mid-group providers managing or tightening intake
What matters:
Hiring didn’t come back uniformly. It split across the market.
📊 MVP Cohort — Separation Holding
Current MVP Cohort
- Achievements ABA
- Brighter Strides
- SOAR
- Behavioral Framework
- Golden Steps ABA
March showed a clear gap between the MVP cohort and the Top 20.
April reinforces it.
- Cohort providers again grew month-over-month
- Growth remains consistent across the group
- No visible slowdown or reversion
Relative staff increase (Mar → Apr):
- Top 20: generally ~1–3% growth
- MVP cohort: generally ~3–6% growth
👉 ~2–3x higher growth rates in the cohort
What changed from March:
- The gap in growth rates did not narrow
- The difference remains consistent across the cohort
What matters:
The fastest growth in the market continues to sit outside the top tier—
and it is still happening at multiples of the growth rate, not margins.
Provider SCUBA Takeaways — April 2026
- March slowdown held into April
- Top tier remains stable
- Growth continues—but stays within existing structure
- No new large staffing jumps in April
- Hiring activity returned—but split across the market
- The MVP cohort continues to grow at ~2–3x the rate of the Top 20
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