⚠️ Methodology Reminder

SCUBA = Scott's Completely Unscientific Behaviorist Assessment — a deliberately imperfect, directional look at staffing momentum across ABA providers.

This is not a census. LinkedIn undercounts direct-care staff, headcount lags payroll, and public job postings reflect intent more than execution. But across more than 130 organizations tracked consistently over time, these signals continue to surface meaningful structural patterns in the ABA market.

🤿 August Snapshot — It Isn't Just the Top 20

For the last several months, Provider SCUBA has been telling essentially the same story.

The operating environment sounds increasingly difficult.

The staffing data doesn't.

There has always been a reasonable explanation for that disconnect: maybe the largest providers are simply different.

They have greater access to capital, larger recruiting organizations, broader geographic footprints, and more opportunities to take share from smaller competitors. A resilient Top 20 doesn't necessarily mean a resilient market.

So this month, I looked further down.

Across 134 mid-sized ABA providers tracked over the last six months, aggregate LinkedIn headcount increased 6.7%.

More importantly, the growth was remarkably broad.

107 of 134 providers — roughly 80% — increased headcount.

Another seven were flat.

Only 20 declined.

That makes the pattern we've been seeing at the top considerably harder to explain away.

The staffing resilience isn't just happening among the industry's largest providers. It's happening across much of the market.

📊 The Middle of the Market Is Growing Too

Smaller starting points can produce impressive percentage growth, so I looked at the middle of the mid-market as well.

Providers starting the period with 100–249 LinkedIn employees grew 9.0% in aggregate over the last six months.

Providers with 250–499 employees grew 7.1%.

And the median provider across the broader mid-market grew 5.7%.

That matters.

Reimbursement pressure hasn't disappeared. Neither have authorization challenges, utilization scrutiny, labor costs or margin compression.

But if those pressures are producing widespread provider contraction, it still isn't showing up in staffing behavior.

And now we can say that about considerably more than the Top 20.

📈 MVP Cohort — Still Out in Front

The MissionViewpoint Q2 2026 MVP Cohort continues to outperform the broader market:

• Action Behavior Centers
• ABA Centers of America
• Behavioral Framework
• Golden Steps ABA
• Brighter Strides ABA

Over the last six months, the cohort increased LinkedIn headcount 12.9% collectively.

Four of the five continued adding headcount in August, while ABA Centers of America was essentially flat — notable given the workforce reductions and operational restructuring reported over the summer.

There are also tangible operating signals behind some of the growth.

Behavioral Framework announced new clinics in Richmond, Virginia and Gilbert, Arizona during August. Golden Steps continues showing evidence of clinic expansion and investment in its workforce pipeline.

Two months into Q3, the cohort continues to demonstrate the staffing momentum that put these providers on the MVP list in the first place.

🏗️ Providers Are Still Adding Capacity

The August activity outside the staffing data points in a similar direction.

LEARN Behavioral announced new centers in San Diego and Fairfax, Virginia.

Caravel Autism Health announced a new Kansas City South clinic.

Proud Moments ABA announced another Georgia location expected to open this fall.

And Behavioral Framework's two clinic announcements add to the same pattern.

A new center doesn't tell us how quickly it will fill, what utilization will look like, or whether the economics ultimately work.

But providers continuing to add physical capacity is difficult to reconcile with the idea of an industry broadly preparing for contraction.

Provider SCUBA Takeaways — August 2026

• The staffing resilience seen among the Top 20 extends considerably further into the market.
• Across 134 mid-sized providers, aggregate LinkedIn headcount increased 6.7% over the last six months.
• Roughly 80% of those providers increased headcount over the period; only 20 declined.
• Providers with 100–499 LinkedIn employees posted particularly strong aggregate growth.
• The Q2 MVP Cohort continues to outperform the broader market.
• Providers including LEARN, Caravel, Proud Moments and Behavioral Framework continue announcing new physical capacity.

Closing

For three months, I've been waiting for the staffing data to catch up with the caution in the room.

August doesn't resolve the disconnect.

It makes it harder to dismiss.

The Top 20 could reasonably be explained as large providers taking share.

A handful of MVPs could be explained as unusually fast-growing organizations.

But when roughly four out of five mid-sized providers are also adding LinkedIn headcount, the story becomes broader than either group.

That doesn't mean the operating pressure isn't real.

It may be showing up first in margins, utilization, organizational structure, geography, or the mix of roles providers employ.

Staffing may simply be one of the last places it appears.

But for now, the signal remains remarkably consistent:

Providers aren't just talking like they expect demand to remain strong. Across much of the market, they're still staffing for it.